Old Crop Sales Recommendations to May 27th. #Canola #Durum #Lentil

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 17, 2013
Posted in: Marketing Plans. Leave a Comment

New Crop Targets are here.  There are a couple of new New Crop recommendations as well as a couple more Old Crop below.

Abbreviated and Bi-Weekly Sales Recommendations through summer season as we wrap Old Crop this summer.  Call for specific ideas to help you finish up any old crop you would like to finish selling.

 

$$May 17th MPUpdates – Seeding going strong locally and starting to progress better than expected in other areas.  With a dry forecast now, getting a little more Bearish as some unseeded/frost/yield risk premium comes out of the market.  Lots of risk of yield and acreage scares ahead but last 2 weeks and coming week  less bad than expected.  Targets expire May 27th. We believe it in your best interest to be within 20% of our official Benchmark positions – plus or minus.

$$CanolaMPU – 100% SOLD – Look for $14.00 or better May delivery {612+5 Basis} to be 100% sold (34bu of a 34bu crop).  Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Apr 9th at $14.07).  At Current May $14.35, be 100+% sold.

 $$Gr.LentilMPU - Target 24.0c  #2  on 20% to be 75% sold (20bu of a 26bu crop). Benchmark is 55% sold. At Current 23.5c #2 be 65+% sold. India Pulse crop a little light and Lentils were not crop of choice at seeding so upside potential but much may be already priced in for Old Crop.  Also – Canadian Lentil country weather has gotten friendlier over the last 2 weeks and normal yield potential remains with likely extra acres than expected a month or two ago so be wary of a 25c wall on new crop.  Bids may dry up leaving only a New Crop market available – so have a space plan on that possibility!

$$Y.PeaMPU – Continue to take $9.00 on 10% to be 85% sold (30bu of a 35bu crop). Benchmark is now 85% sold. At current $9.00 bid be 85+% sold. Target 1 hit of our finishing plan.  If it can not break through $9 in the next two weeks, we’ll consider moving to 100% but enough potential of $10 to hold that greedy portion for a while yet.

$$FlaxMPU – Target $18.25 on 15% if you can find it to be 100% sold. (27bu of a 27bu crop). Benchmark is 85% sold. At Current $16.09 be 75+% sold. Friendly weather is not Bullish Flax as two weeks ago this looked like a crop that would not be seeded in time to have any kind of yield potential, now it has a shot if this pattern holds.

$$ChickpeaMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for a 31.5c rough #2 specs to be 100% sold (47bu of a 47bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Oct 23rd at 35.5c). At Current 33.5c be 100+% sold.  SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.

$$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for $7.03 to be 100% sold (78bu of a 78bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Nov 13th at $7.24). At Current $7.13 be 100% sold.  SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.

$$DurumMPU – Take $8.00 #2 ($8.20 #1-13.0) on 15% to be 90% sold (41bu of a 46 bu crop).  Benchmark is now 90% sold.  At Current $8.00 #2 be 90+% sold. Friendly weather in Durum country is not Bullish Durum.  Holding onto 10% as a greed play into less benign weather potential but understand that many will want to go right to 100% on this sale and that is fine too.

$$HRSWheatMPU – Take $7.34 #2 on 10% to be 80% sold (23bu of a 42bu crop).  Benchmark is now 80% sold. At Current $7.34 #2 be 80+% sold.  – We have mostly missed this one and simply have to play catch-up.  There were nice bids last fall that obvious to us now should have been sold more aggressively. This was the one crop where we didn’t get back to or exceed the fall highs so will take our lumps now verse more later.

May 14th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 15, 2013
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a Comment

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Malt/Lentil/Y.Pea/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  May $14.35(+5)   Sep $11.72(27)

#2Y.Pea:       May $9.00          Aug $7.88

#1Flax:          May $16.09       Oct $14.00

#2GrLentil:     May 23.5c         Sep 23.0c

K.Chickpea:    May 33.5c           Oct NB

#EthWheat:    May $6.86         Aug $5.42

#2AD13.0:      May $7.80        Sep $7.20

#2HRS13.5:    May $7.34        Sep $6.83

Select Malt:     May $5.76        Oct $5.32

Fd. Barley:      May $5.26        Sep $3.78

Key Recent Posts

April 24th, 2013 – StatsCan Seeding Intentions – How to Play the Print
April 9th, 2013 – Who has a Volunteer Canola plan in place?
April 9th, 2013 – Late Seeding into a Cool Wet Forecast – Considerations and Recommendations.
April 18th, 2013 – Old Crop Sales Recommendations to April 29th
April 18th, 2013 – New Crop Sales Recommendations to April 29th
Last Week’s Prices – May 7th – Local Best Bids
February 1st, 2012 – MarketWatch – Commodity Complex Weakness

 

 

Volunteer Canola in Durum – Post Seed Warning

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 13, 2013
Posted in: Agronomy. Leave a Comment

Remember, there are restrictions to using PrePass or Express “post”-seed if you were unable to do a “pre”-seed Burnoff.  If you were not, we have only a matter of days after seeding to still get this very important (on Canola stubble) application done to control the coming flush of Volunteer Canola.   Here are the options we have if you are in this predicament with early seeded Durum that is now 4-6 days after seeding.

Old Crop Sales Recommendations to May 21st. #Canola #Durum #Lentil

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 8, 2013
Posted in: Marketing Plans. Leave a Comment

New Crop Targets out Next week – last weeks are here.

Abbreviated and Bi-Weekly Sales Recommendations through summer season as we wrap Old Crop this summer.  Call for specific ideas to help you finish up any old crop you would like to finish selling.

 

$$May 7th MPUpdates – S&P making new highs, Oil rebounding – a relatively positive outside influence on Grains but low stocks are mostly priced in and the market now bouncing up and down on North American weather and will for the next few months.  Targets expire May 21st. We believe it in your best interest to be within 20% of our official Benchmark positions – plus or minus.

$$CanolaMPU – 100% SOLD – Look for $14.00 or better May delivery {612+5 Basis} to be 100% sold (34bu of a 34bu crop).  Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Apr 9th at $14.07).  At Current May $13.75, be 90+% sold.

 $$Gr.LentilMPU - Target 24.5c  #2  on 20% to be 75% sold (20bu of a 26bu crop). Benchmark is 55% sold. At Current 23.5c #2 be 65+% sold. India Pulse crop a little light and Lentils were not crop of choice at seeding so upside potential but much may be already priced in for Old Crop.  Also – Canadian Lentil country weather has gotten friendlier over the last 2 weeks and normal yield potential remains with likely extra acres than expected a month or two ago so be wary of a 25c wall on new crop.  Bids may dry up leaving only a New Crop market available – so have a space plan on that possibility!

$$Y.PeaMPU – Take $9.00 on 10% to be 85% sold (30bu of a 35bu crop). Benchmark is now 85% sold. At current $9.00 bid be 85+% sold. Target 1 hit of our finishing plan.  If it can not break through $9 in the next two weeks, we’ll consider moving to 100% but enough potential of $10 to hold that greedy portion for a while yet.

$$FlaxMPU – Continue to take $17.37 on 10% if you can find it to be 85% sold. (23bu of a 27bu crop). Benchmark is 85% sold. At Current $16.24 be 75+% sold. Friendly weather is not Bullish Flax as two weeks ago this looked like a crop that would not be seeded in time to have any kind of yield potential, now it has a shot if this pattern holds.

$$ChickpeaMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for a 31.5c rough #2 specs to be 100% sold (47bu of a 47bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Oct 23rd at 35.5c). At Current 33.5c be 100+% sold.  SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.

$$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for $7.03 to be 100% sold (78bu of a 78bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Nov 13th at $7.24). At Current $7.13 be 100% sold.  SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.

$$DurumMPU – Target $7.90 #2 on 10% to be 85% sold (39bu of a 46 bu crop).  Benchmark is 75% sold. At Current $7.66 #2 be 75+% sold. Friendly weather in Durum country is not Bullish Durum.  Other items are though so we are not aggressively finishing sales yet.

$$HRSWheatMPU – Target $7.70 or better #2 on 20% to be 75% sold (23bu of a 42bu crop).  Benchmark is 70% sold. At Current $7.34 #2 be 65+% sold.  

May 7th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 8, 2013
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a Comment

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Malt/Lentil/Y.Pea/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  May $13.74(+5)   Sep $11.60(27)

#2Y.Pea:       May $9.00          Aug $7.88

#1Flax:          May $16.24       Oct $14.08

#2GrLentil:     May 23.5c         Sep 23.0c

K.Chickpea:    May 33.5c           Oct NB

#EthWheat:    May $7.13         Aug $5.42

#2AD13.0:      May $7.66        Sep $7.20

#2HRS13.5:    May $7.34        Sep $6.88

Select Malt:     May $6.13        Oct $5.82

Fd. Barley:      May $5.26        Sep $3.78

 

Key Recent Posts

April 24th, 2013 – StatsCan Seeding Intentions – How to Play the Print
April 9th, 2013 – Who has a Volunteer Canola plan in place?
April 9th, 2013 – Late Seeding into a Cool Wet Forecast – Considerations and Recommendations.
April 18th, 2013 – Old Crop Sales Recommendations to April 29th
April 18th, 2013 – New Crop Sales Recommendations to April 29th
Last Week’s Prices – May 1st – Local Best Bids
February 1st, 2012 – MarketWatch – Commodity Complex Weakness

 

 

J-MAS 2013 Seeding Progress – to May 1st #Plant13 #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on May 2, 2013
Posted in: Agronomy. Leave a Comment

Local seeded acres are currently 19.4% below 2012 total seeded acreage and counting, with seeding still at least 2-3 days away – a solid 10+ days behind normal.

For a crop by crop breakdown, and previous week’s progress, the 2013 Seeding Progress Page has been updated with year to year and crop by crop comparisons.