Wrapping up Canola position today, and making a number of other sales as well.
New Crop Targets are here. One continued sales and one new sale.
$$April 3rd MPUpdates – Regardless whether the extra 400 million bushels of corn were the result of misreporting or a shift in demand, – one being less Bearish in the long-term than the other – or whether there were seasonal or hand to mouth anomalies in play – which would be Bullish in coming reports – sentiment has changed, the funds are taking their positions down, and for all intents in purposes the US drought rally is over. The Old Crop highs are almost certainly in so we are shifting our focus to New Crop where issues around the globe may benefit prices on a new set of catalysts. Targets expire April 9th. We believe it in your best interest to be within 20% of our official Benchmark positions – plus or minus.
$$CanolaMPU – Take $14.07 Mar Delivery {616+4 Basis} on 15% to be 100% sold (34bu of a 34bu crop). Benchmark is now 100% sold. At Current Mar $14.07, be 100+% sold. Canola sales are moving to 100% on limited upside from here and larger downside risk (possibly imminently). Beans do have potential to drop further yet as 1-2 million acres of Corn are switched up into Beans and Wheat. Moneyflow is likely to continue the wrong direction until deeper into crop development stages and thus a New Crop story.
$$Gr.LentilMPU – Target 22.5c #2 on 15% to be 70% sold (18bu of a 26bu crop). Benchmark is 55% sold. At Current 21.0c #2 be 50+% sold. Everything according to plan to date but breached the 20c barrier a little early than hoped for but not too concerning given that reds have progressed well enough to take the burnt of any acreage shifts back into lentils. Red leadership has always been the third pillar in our Bullish Green case.
$$Y.PeaMPU – Target $8.90 on 10% to be 85% sold (35bu of a 35bu crop). Benchmark is 75% sold. At current $8.55 bid be 75+% sold. Peas share some of the concerns stemming from the same Corn stock issue as Canola, Durum and the feed grains do. However, enough weather and early yield issues are anecdotally leaking out of India, that the risk reward of holding a little while longer seems prudent today. Finger is on the trigger to change that idea.
$$FlaxMPU – Take $16.00 on 15% to be 75% sold. (20bu of a 27bu crop). Benchmark is now 75% sold. At Current $16.00 be 75% sold. Like Lentils, Flax is also progressing according to plan. The Ukraine blew through their stocks leaving Canada the only shop in town and we are reaping that reward now. Flax can probably premium itself $3/bushel to Canola and so $16 is a good place to start exiting this long as Canola has a seeing the low $13’s and a $3 premium is no guarantee.
$$ChickpeaMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for a 31.5c rough #2 specs to be 100% sold (47bu of a 47bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Oct 23rd at 35.5c). At Current 30.5c be 80+% sold. SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.
$$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for $7.03 to be 100% sold (78bu of a 78bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Nov 13th at $7.24). At Current $7.03 be 100% sold. SEE NEW CROP TARGETS HERE.
$$DurumMPU – Target $7.85 #2 on 10% to be 85% sold (39bu of a 46 bu crop). Benchmark is 75% sold. At Current $7.75 #2 be 75+% sold. Going into Thursday’s USDA the Durum picture was looking brighter. Lentil rebound was likely to take back 100K Durum acres and Corn more and more likely to find its way onto some Durum acres in Montana, N.Dakota and even Saskatchewan. The latter phenomenon actually showed up in the USDA showing a drop in Durum and corresponding increase in Corn in those two states, but with the Corn price swoon those acres are likely coming back to Durum. Export pace is sound and stocks are not nearly as burdensome, but big upside will need a supply wreck and that means us. Looking for a quick 30-40c bounce and our finger is on the trigger to make Old Crop go away.
$$HRSWheatMPU – Take $7.39 #2 on 15% to be 70% sold (23bu of a 42bu crop). Benchmark is now 70% sold. At Current $7.39 #2 be 70+% sold. Wheat bouncing off the price swoon on US and global weather events. Corn is pricing itself back into feed rations which will begin to hurt wheat demand but some good domestic use has put wheat into a more normal SUR. Persistent weather problems could elevate pricing but weather is rarely persistent.