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All posts for the month November, 2012

November 28th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 28, 2012
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Good bottoming price action on all Grains last 4 days but Canola sitting exactly at 38.2% retracement of the recent drop and thus a very good catch-up point for anyone who think $13.25 today looks a lot better than the $12.60 of ten days ago.

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  Dec $13.25(6)   Jan $13.22(8)

#2Y.Pea:       Dec $8.16          Jan $8.35

#1Flax:          Dec $14.25        Jan $13.72

#2GrLentil:    Dec 18.0c

K.Chickpea:   Dec 34.0c

#EthWheat:   Dec $7.38         Jan $7.51

#2AD13.0:     Dec $7.90          Jan $8.08

#2HRS13.5:   Dec $8.09          Jan $8.20

– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months.  See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours.  Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.

*special “limited tonne” price

Nov 20th – Deferred “Real” Values for Canola, Durum, Y.Pea

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 20, 2012
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Canola:     Spot = $12.75,      Best “Real” Deferred Price = $12.75 (Nov – $12.89).

Durum:      Spot  = $7.86,       Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.11 (Mar – $8.36).

Y. Pea:       Spot = $8.13,        Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.18 (Mar – $8.49).

 


– Above are tables explaining The “Move” to date for the current marketing year – shaded in Purple.  They also highlight the closing bid for each delivery period for the 2012-13 marketing year – shaded in Blue.  Cost of Carry – shaded in Coral – is also calculated for each delivery period and factored in to the “Real” price – column in Green font.  The best “Real” price currently available is highlighted in Yellow for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 marketing year.  Last Week’s and Last Month’s “Real” price is there and also the High and the Low closing prices  for the year – used to calculate the current year’s “Move”.

November 20th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 20, 2012
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FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  Nov $12.88(11)   Jan $12.88(10)

#2Y.Pea:       Nov $8.26          Jan $8.32

#1Flax:          Nov $14.25        Jan $13.72

#2GrLentil:    Nov 18.0c

K.Chickpea:   Nov 34.0c

#EthWheat:   Nov $7.38         Jan $7.37

#2AD13.0:     Nov $7.94          Jan $8.18

#2HRS13.5:   Nov $7.88          Jan $8.03

– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months.  See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours.  Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.

*special “limited tonne” price

Nov 13th – Deferred “Real” Values for Canola, Durum, Y.Pea

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 13, 2012
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a comment

Canola:     Spot = $12.58,      Best “Real” Deferred Price = $12.58 (Spot – $12.71).

Durum:      Spot  = $7.86,       Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.11 (Mar – $8.36).

Y. Pea:       Spot = $7.95,        Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.18 (Mar – $8.49).

 


– Above are tables explaining The “Move” to date for the current marketing year – shaded in Purple.  They also highlight the closing bid for each delivery period for the 2012-13 marketing year – shaded in Blue.  Cost of Carry – shaded in Coral – is also calculated for each delivery period and factored in to the “Real” price – column in Green font.  The best “Real” price currently available is highlighted in Yellow for both the 2012-13 and 2013-14 marketing year.  Last Week’s and Last Month’s “Real” price is there and also the High and the Low closing prices  for the year – used to calculate the current year’s “Move”.

A detailed explanation of how this is put together, why the tables as a whole are important, and the assumptions we are making on Cost of Carry, will be the starting topic for our next monthly Marketing Meeting starting on November 7th.  Call or reply with any questions in the meantime.

November 13th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 13, 2012
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a comment

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  Nov $12.68(15)   Jan $12.71(13)

#2Y.Pea:       Nov $8.26          Jan $8.37

#1Flax:          Nov $14.20        Jan $13.72

#2GrLentil:    Nov 18.5c

K.Chickpea:   Nov 34.5c

#EthWheat:   Nov $7.37         Jan $7.37

#2AD13.0:     Nov $7.94          Jan $8.18

#2HRS13.5:   Nov $7.95          Jan $8.11

– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months.  See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours.  Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.

*special “limited tonne” price

MarketWatch – Bearish USDA. Production above estimates. #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on November 9, 2012
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As was being priced in the last 2 weeks, Bean yield up and leading to higher production and higher carry. We may have enough Beans to make it to the S.American crop but the jury still out on that.

With this the last report likely to show a drastic yield change, the focus shifts to the reality of what the S.American crop will become or not. Weather and Demand are now the focus.