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All posts for the month November, 2012
Good bottoming price action on all Grains last 4 days but Canola sitting exactly at 38.2% retracement of the recent drop and thus a very good catch-up point for anyone who think $13.25 today looks a lot better than the $12.60 of ten days ago.
FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)
#1Canola: Dec $13.25(6) Jan $13.22(8)
#2Y.Pea: Dec $8.16 Jan $8.35
#1Flax: Dec $14.25 Jan $13.72
#2GrLentil: Dec 18.0c
K.Chickpea: Dec 34.0c
#EthWheat: Dec $7.38 Jan $7.51
#2AD13.0: Dec $7.90 Jan $8.08
#2HRS13.5: Dec $8.09 Jan $8.20
– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months. See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours. Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.
*special “limited tonne” price
Canola: Spot = $12.75, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $12.75 (Nov – $12.89).
Durum: Spot = $7.86, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.11 (Mar – $8.36).
Y. Pea: Spot = $8.13, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.18 (Mar – $8.49).

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)
#1Canola: Nov $12.88(11) Jan $12.88(10)
#2Y.Pea: Nov $8.26 Jan $8.32
#1Flax: Nov $14.25 Jan $13.72
#2GrLentil: Nov 18.0c
K.Chickpea: Nov 34.0c
#EthWheat: Nov $7.38 Jan $7.37
#2AD13.0: Nov $7.94 Jan $8.18
#2HRS13.5: Nov $7.88 Jan $8.03
– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months. See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours. Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.
*special “limited tonne” price
Canola: Spot = $12.58, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $12.58 (Spot – $12.71).
Durum: Spot = $7.86, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.11 (Mar – $8.36).
Y. Pea: Spot = $7.95, Best “Real” Deferred Price = $8.18 (Mar – $8.49).

A detailed explanation of how this is put together, why the tables as a whole are important, and the assumptions we are making on Cost of Carry, will be the starting topic for our next monthly Marketing Meeting starting on November 7th. Call or reply with any questions in the meantime.
FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)
#1Canola: Nov $12.68(15) Jan $12.71(13)
#2Y.Pea: Nov $8.26 Jan $8.37
#1Flax: Nov $14.20 Jan $13.72
#2GrLentil: Nov 18.5c
K.Chickpea: Nov 34.5c
#EthWheat: Nov $7.37 Jan $7.37
#2AD13.0: Nov $7.94 Jan $8.18
#2HRS13.5: Nov $7.95 Jan $8.11
– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months. See “Deferred Real Values” post coming in a few hours. Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will always utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.
*special “limited tonne” price
As was being priced in the last 2 weeks, Bean yield up and leading to higher production and higher carry. We may have enough Beans to make it to the S.American crop but the jury still out on that.
With this the last report likely to show a drastic yield change, the focus shifts to the reality of what the S.American crop will become or not. Weather and Demand are now the focus.