Bank of Canada kept interest rates steady while stock markets around the world tumbled today on a long awaited and needed correction. This may indeed be the oil flush we are looking for to finally bottom.
Grains holding up decently well with oilseeds on both sides of the border faring the worst with 10c drops. Not bad at all in a highly volatile day.
We believe most of our Old Crop and New Crop theses remain intact, which is for a soft sloping grind higher – up to, but not through, nearby resistance levels without a spring weather scare.
95 days until seeding starts.
Old Crop Sales Recommended this week: none – looking to move up sales of Canola and Chickpea in the coming weeks. Everything else besides Flax should be moved already.
Canola – Target $10.73 (498F-25B) Feb Delivery on 10% to be 80% sold of a 45bu crop.
*with 0c Deferred Delivery costs, $10.73 is a comparative Spot Value and is a roughly 67% profit on 45bu. Current Spot bid is $10.41 (a roughly 62% ROI).
**$8.73 Mar Bean close at 68.8c exchange would value Canola at 506 Mar futures ($10.91@25B) with a $40/mt Canola premium (current premium is $18/mt).** ***Catchup around $10.39-$10.54.
Durum – Look for $8.30+ #2(13.0) on 10% to be 100% sold on a 45bu crop.
*$8.30 is a roughly 36% profit on a 45 bushel crop. Current Spot bid is $8.50 (a roughly 44% ROI). ***Catchup around $8.50-$8.75.
LG Lentil – Look for 42c+ #2 on 15% to be 100% sold on a 26bu crop.
*42.0c is about 143% profit on a 26 bushel crop. Current Spot bid is 54.0c (a roughly 212% ROI). *Discount #1MG – 2.5c
*Discount #1SG – 5.0c
***Catchup around 60+c.
K.Chickpea – Target 46.5c (8.75mm Delivery) on 10% to be 90% sold. 46.5c is about 207% profit on 44bu. Current Spot bid is 42.5c (a roughly 181% profit).
***Catchup around 41-43c.
Red Lentil – Look for 49.0c+ Nov Delivery on 10% to be 100% sold. Current Spot bid is 52.0c. ***Catchup around 50+c.
Y.Pea – Look for $12.05+ #2 Jan Delivery on 10% to be 100% sold. Current Spot bid is $13.01.
***Catchup around $12.50-$13.00.
Flax – Target $12.50 Feb Delivery on 20% to be 80% sold.
Current Spot bid is $12.00.
***Catchup around $11.50-$12.00.
Eth.Wheat – Target 5.55 Jan Delivery on 30% to be 100% sold. Current Spot bid is $5.05. ***Catchup around $5.00-5.25.
HRS – Take $6.35 #2HRS Nov Delivery on 15% to be 100% sold. Current Sep bid is $6.37. ***Catchup around $6.25-$6.45.
Call or Text on: Bean, Barley, Mustard, or Green Pea.