August 30, 2013 – Before today’s Target or Action, J-MAS is 20% sold new crop Durum (9 bushels of a 43 bushel crop) with a $7.34 sales average.
Minneapolis Wheat Futures are 7.18, remaining right near the lows of a relatively consistent downtrend.
#2 Durum is $7.48, about 60c off the summer high.
Today we are recommending the following Actions Items for Durum:
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August 30, 2013 – Before today’s Target or Action, J-MAS is 25% sold new crop Yellow Pea (9 bushels of a 36 bushel crop) with an $7.89 sales average.
Chana are rs3185 , about rs115 off the recent high. This is only a 23% Retracement of its current bounce. There is support at 2600 that has held so far, and will be very Bearish if it does not hold as that is support back nearly 5 years.
Y.Pea is $7.04, about $1.20 off the summer high. With Chana possibly bottoming, we are likely to see Peas hang around here until harvest pressure eases, and that could be some time yet given the high yields to date.
Today we are recommending the following Actions Items based on the extreme volatility we will see when the market comes back on Tuesday – after a 3 day, weather induced break – and a risk-managed way to play it today:
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August 30, 2013 – Before today’s Target or Action, J-MAS is 30% sold new crop Canola (13 bushels of a 42 bushel crop) with an $11.69 sales average.
Beans are 13.56 , about 35c off the recent high. They have a gap to fill down to 13.30 and should find support there and if no rain in the next 10 days, should go significantly higher once filling it. Retracement so far is only 17% of the run from 11.65 and therefore still completely in “Uptrend” territory.
Canola is 11.07, about 35c off on Futures and 20c down on Basis. This is only 25% Retracement and thus still in an Uptrend but absolutely need Beans to find Gap support as the Canola crop is much too big to hold $11.00 off the combine otherwise.
Today we are recommending the following Actions Items based on the extreme volatility we will see when the market comes back on Tuesday – after a 3 day, weather induced break – and a risk-managed way to play it today:
Customers click here for more.
August 26, 2013 – J-MAS is 30% sold new crop Canola (about 13 bushels of a 42 bushel crop) with an $11.69 sales average.
Big overnight move on South American frost and very poor US weather conditions for Beans during key filling stage. Funds also look to be getting back in as volumes were very, very high overnight. It’s probably an understatement to say that this was a game changer though Beans have been moving categorically higher for two straight weeks. On the other hand … Canola crop is likely to be massive. Our own yields are all very high in areas where we thought 40 would be a struggle and we haven’t gotten yields from other local areas that saw better moisture levels. So we must sell into this rally as it will be a while before the S&D pencils need sharpened. We still see better things in the new year, but much of that could be happening right now as passive buyers might have to get aggressive now and this will curtail the demand picture we saw developing through the 2nd half of the marketing season.
We are recommending the following two Action Items today:
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We are getting our weather rally just in time as we get a firm handle on our own Canola yields.
Frost in S.America and HOT weather in the US beating up the Bean crop plays into the weather Thesis of our latest Target.
More out tomorrow with an update to our current Canola play and new ideas on Durum, Wheat and Peas.
Beans near Limit up as we head to bed. Enjoy the morning.
J-MAS is currently 30% sold new crop Canola (about 11bu of a 37 bushel crop) with an $11.76 sales average.
The market is up strongly today and the last week on continued slow development of US crops along with a dry bias as Beans hit the critical filling stage. We respect this rational for moving higher and could easily see this price being the low for the rest of the marketing year if a Frost were to enter the picture in early Sep (and it very well could). However, we have played this game before and if the perceived risk does not manifest into a reality all we got was our typical 38% retracement on its way to lower pricing. Good resistance on both Fib and Previous-Support levels between 514-520 and with an over-exuberant Monday possibly moving towards a Turnaround Tuesday we want to nab this bid today.
NEXT TARGET – is an aggressive play against the potential of an early September frost on a very susceptible Bean crop in the US.
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J-MAS is currently 20% sold new crop Canola with a $12.02 sales average.
We have held off on allowing catch-ups to our 20% position during the drop to $10.25 but are now recommending the following Catch-Up and Target plans.
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However price action is sloppy after a very Bullish Soybean and Corn yield print that caught many unprepared for a drop in yield.
There are also some hidden gems in this report, which should be more bullish in the long term and should explain the good but not great price action this far.
Wednesday’s recommendations will reflect this new data and how the two day price action will have provided direction.
Click on this email to visit the website and see the new Local Best Bid widget.
Part of the new site plan will be to have new content easily acceptable from the website and premium content for customers only just a click away from there.
We are phasing in the new website plan over the next five weeks rather than try to get it all done at once in the middle of the lingering scouting season.