$$February 13th MPUpdates – As noted in last weeks recommendation all Grains were very near a resistance level they weren’t pressing very hard against but hadn’t bounced off yet. That bounce has now happened. February is typically a price swoon month and chart damage is not critical yet – but close enough that we are moving along Pea, and Flax sales on Canola’s leadership and the fact those prices have held up to date. The Wheat chart is dreadful and we still have acreage concerns on Durum. May is the new Futures market for Canola so we should see the May contract take on some better leadership on a bounce and our recommendations going forward and should provide opportunities to move up sales for those with a May or July locked basis. Targets expire February 19th. We believe it in your best interest to be within 20% of our official Benchmark positions – plus or minus.
$$CanolaMPU – Target $14.49 Feb Delivery {642-3 Basis} on 10% to be 90% sold (31bu of a 34bu crop). Benchmark is 80% sold. At Current Dec $14.01, be 80+% sold. WOULD LIKE TO SEE REMAINING SALES PORTIONS DIVIDED INTO THREE TRANCHES – having sold the 1st Tranche last week and looking to move the next tranche soon on a week bounce or at our target on a strong bounce. We believe $15.25 is fully in play if not a pot-shot at $16 but this could be down the road and is far from certain so should only be a target for the 3rd tranche. Price weakness here actually increases New Crop upside. $$CanolaMPU(NewCrop) – Target $13.36 Sep Delivery {6604-15 Basis} on 10% to be 20% sold (6bu of a 31bu crop). Benchmark is 10% sold. At Current Sep $11.85, be 10+% sold.
$$Gr.LentilMPU – Target a 20.0c Feb delivery price on a #2 contract on 15% to be 55% sold (14bu of a 26bu crop). Benchmark is 40% sold. At Current 18.50c #2 be 25+% sold. Lentils have retraced a little after getting as high as 19.5c for a #2. This was expected as demand will meet supply as it presents itself. Breaking through 20c will not be an overnight process and may not happen before seeding. $$Gr.LentilMPU(NewCrop) – Target a 21.5c Aug-Sep delivery price on a #2 contract on 15% to be 10% sold (4of a 24bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current NB be 0+% sold.
$$Y.PeaMPU – Take $8.43 Feb Delivery on 10% to be 75% sold (26bu of a 35bu crop). Benchmark is now 75% sold. At current Feb $8.43 bid be 75+% sold. Chana futures continue to take a beating and StatsCan stocks report was relatively neutral for Yellow Peas. We are looking at moving up sales now that Canola broke its current uptrend. $$Y.PeaMPU(NewCrop) – Target $8.10 Aug Delivery on 10% to be 10% sold (3bu of a 32bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At current Mar $7.49 bid be 0+% sold.
$$FlaxMPU – Take $14.65 Feb delivery on 10% to be 60% sold. (16bu of a 27bu crop). Benchmark is now 60% sold. At Current $14.50 be 50% sold. Flax bids should perk up as East coast ports open up or else this would have been a 20% sale. It is worth noting that the economy in Europe is showing signs of bottoming. $$FlaxMPU(NewCrop) – Target $14.35 Oct delivery on 10% to be 10% sold. (3bu of a 25bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current $13.48 be 0% sold.
$$ChickpeaMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for a 31.5c rough #2 specs to be 100% sold (47bu of a 47bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Oct 23rd at 35.5c). At Current 30.5c be 80+% sold. NEW CROP RECOMMENDATIONS COMING IN MARCH
$$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU – 100% SOLD – Continue to take for $7.24+ to be 100% sold (78bu of a 78bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Nov 13th at $7.24). At Current $7.44 be 100% sold. $$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU(NewCrop) – Target $6.95 Aug delivery on 10% to be 20% sold (10bu of a 50bu crop). Benchmark is 10% sold. At Current $6.45 be 10+% sold.
$$DurumMPU – Target $8.40 Feb delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 85% sold (35bu of a 46 bu crop). Benchmark is 75% sold. At Current $7.70 #2 be 50+% sold. Wheat chart is dreadful and Durum potential is limited by the potential for acres and production to be a little higher than needed going into next year. Durum could end up being the only oversupplied crop in calendar 2014 though a lot of variables in play prior to that. Looking to move up sales at any bid with an 8-handle little while but with Canola breaking uptrend. $$DurumMPU(NewCrop) – Take $7.47 Sep delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 10% sold (4bu of a 37bu crop). Benchmark is now 10% sold. At Current $7.47 #2 be 10+% sold.
$$HardRedSpringMPU – Take $7.51#2 on 15% to be 55% sold (23bu of a 42bu crop). Benchmark is now 55% sold. At Current $7.51 #2 be 55+% sold. Minneapolis wheat chart is dreadful having broken through support yet again and on a relativley Bullish series of reports and persistant dryness in the US. This is simply a market that right now, does not want to go higher.. $$HardRedSpringMPU(NewCrop) – Target $7.85 Sep delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 10% sold (3bu of a 34bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current $7.54 #2 be 5+% sold.
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