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All posts for the month February, 2013

March Marketing Meeting – Friday, March 1st at Bayer Office in Regina

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on February 26, 2013
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a comment

Marketing Meeting this Friday!

There will be a Marketing Meeting this Friday at the Bayer Office in Regina followed by Supper and the hospitality box at the Pats/Warriors game.  Meeting starts at 2:00pm with a tour of the Bayer plant starting promptly at 3:00pm and supper around 5:00.

There will be an iPad draw around 6:00pm and you must be present to win – odds of winning improve each month.  Text, Call or Email with topics you want to ensure are discussed so we can prepare ahead.

All customers are welcome whether you be on the 2012 crop program or already signed up for the 2013.  The only difference between the two crop year sign-ups is eligibility for the iPad draw.

If you haven’t already, please send a quick text or email to Kiall to confirm your attendance so we can get a rough guess on food needs.  You can contact Kelsey at 381-3603 or khutch@live.ca.

Who - J-MAS Customers, J-MAS Employees, Local Retail & Bayer Crop Science Canada
What - Commodity Marketing Meeting & Supper 
When - 2:00pm thru 9:30pm
Where - Bayer Office - Regina
Why - Canola, Durum, Lentil Marketing Plan.
How - 2 Quick presentations followed by a Q/A discussion period, Supper and Hockey Game.

Call, text or reply if you have questions.

MarketWatch – Commodity Complex Weakness

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on February 21, 2013
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a comment

Posted February 21st, 2013, 12:42

This is a general warning over all Grains but is less specific to Lentil and Chickpea and most specific to Canola and Wheat in our area.

The drop in the Canadian dollar is very concerning and we are reiterating all our sales positions by recommending a general catch-up and/or a surpassing of those positions if you too are nervous on a more macro level.

There is no doubt Soybeans are exerting leadership here but there is the potential for a perfect storm of headwinds: Overbought Equity markets, Federal Reserve tightening, more Benign US weather and most important the repercussions of the Canadian Dollar drop.

Anyone who tells you that a dropping Canadian dollar is Bullish our grains is uninformed. Canadian currency is a benchmark for Risk-On Commodity plays and is a safe haven for hedging against commodity inflation. A drop here is a signal of a trend away from Commodities of which I believe the Grains have specifically been a safe haven harbour of money still fearing the Equity markets.

I believe in current Grain fundamentals but they can act irrationally as long as net flows of money are out of Commodities. And while a medium-term to long-term drop can be met with a precipitous rise once Fundamentals reassert themselves, that could be a crop or two away.

We are not adding to any sales today as our positions have been calculated against this possibility but we do believe there is reason to catchup over the next hours, days (or weeks – if you are less concerned then us). We recommend hours to days.

Spring Wheat should probably be 75% but otherwise here are the current Benchmarks we recommend catching up to and current bids.

Canola 80% sold. Bid is $14.22
Pea 75% sold. Bid is $8.43
Flax 60% sold. Bid is $14.52
Lentil is 40% sold. Bid is 18.5c
Chickpea is 100% sold. Bid is 30.5c
Eth.Wht is 100% sold. Bid is 7.15
Durum is 75% sold. Bid is $7.79
Wheat is 55% sold. Bid is $7.58

I’m traveling today. Text with questions.

February 20th – Local Best Bids #canola #lentil #durum #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on February 20, 2013
Posted in: Market Watches. Leave a comment

FOB Assiniboia, SK (Except for Lentil/Chickpea FOB Farm)

#1Canola:  Feb $14.14(8)  Sep $12.39(24)

#2Y.Pea:       Feb $8.43          Aug $7.47

#1Flax:          Feb $14.42        Oct $13.48

#2GrLentil:     Feb 18.0c          Sep 18.0c

K.Chickpea:    Feb 30.5c           Oct NB

#EthWheat:    Feb $7.15         Aug $5.95

#2AD13.0:      Feb $7.79         Sep $7.44

#2HRS13.5:    Feb $7.58         Sep $7.31

Select Malt:     Feb $6.09         Sep $5.58

– Better pricing may exist in deferred delivery months.  See “Deferred Real Values” post coming from time to time.  Marketing Plan Updates/Targets (tonight/tomorrow) will often utilize Real Value prices, reflecting Cost of Carry.

*special “limited tonne” price

Marketing Plan Updates and Sales Recommendations to Feb 19th. #westcdnag

Posted by J-MAS Market Masters on February 13, 2013
Posted in: Marketing Plans. Leave a comment

$$February 13th MPUpdates –  As noted in last weeks recommendation all Grains were very near a resistance level they weren’t pressing very hard against but hadn’t bounced off yet.  That bounce has now happened.  February is typically a price swoon month and chart damage is not critical yet – but close enough that we are moving along Pea, and Flax sales on Canola’s leadership and the fact those prices have held up to date.  The Wheat chart is dreadful and we still have acreage concerns on Durum.  May is the new Futures market for Canola so we should see the May contract take on some better leadership on a bounce and our recommendations going forward and should provide opportunities to move up sales for those with a May or July locked basis.  Targets expire February 19th.  We believe it in your best interest to be within 20% of our official Benchmark positions – plus or minus.

$$CanolaMPU – Target $14.49 Feb Delivery {642-3 Basis} on 10% to be 90% sold (31bu of a 34bu crop).  Benchmark is 80% sold.  At Current Dec $14.01, be 80+% sold. WOULD LIKE TO SEE REMAINING SALES PORTIONS DIVIDED INTO THREE TRANCHES – having sold the 1st Tranche last week and looking to move the next tranche soon on a week bounce or at our target on a strong bounce. We believe $15.25 is fully in play if not a pot-shot at $16 but this could be down the road and is far from certain so should only be a target for the 3rd tranche.  Price weakness here actually increases New Crop upside.  $$CanolaMPU(NewCrop) – Target $13.36 Sep Delivery {6604-15 Basis} on 10% to be 20% sold (6bu of a 31bu crop). Benchmark is 10% sold.  At Current Sep $11.85, be 10+% sold.

$$Gr.LentilMPU – Target a 20.0c Feb delivery price on a #2 contract on 15% to be 55% sold (14bu of a 26bu crop). Benchmark is 40% sold. At Current 18.50c #2 be 25+% sold.  Lentils have retraced a little after getting as high as 19.5c for a #2.  This was expected as demand will meet supply as it presents itself.  Breaking through 20c will not be an overnight process and may not happen before seeding.  $$Gr.LentilMPU(NewCrop) – Target a 21.5c Aug-Sep delivery price on a #2 contract on 15% to be 10% sold (4of a 24bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current NB be 0+% sold.

$$Y.PeaMPU – Take $8.43 Feb Delivery on 10% to be 75% sold (26bu of a 35bu crop).  Benchmark is now 75% sold.  At current Feb $8.43 bid be 75+% sold.  Chana futures continue to take a beating and StatsCan stocks report was relatively neutral for Yellow Peas.  We are looking at moving up sales now that Canola broke its current uptrend.  $$Y.PeaMPU(NewCrop) – Target $8.10 Aug Delivery on 10% to be 10% sold (3bu of a 32bu crop).  Benchmark is 0% sold.  At current Mar $7.49 bid be 0+% sold.

$$FlaxMPU – Take $14.65  Feb delivery on 10% to be 60% sold. (16bu of a 27bu crop). Benchmark is now 60% sold. At Current $14.50 be 50% sold.  Flax bids should perk up as East coast ports open up or else this would have been a 20% sale.  It is worth noting that the economy in Europe is showing signs of bottoming.  $$FlaxMPU(NewCrop) – Target $14.35 Oct delivery on 10% to be 10% sold. (3bu of a 25bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current $13.48 be 0% sold.

$$ChickpeaMPU – 100% SOLD – Settle for a 31.5c rough #2 specs to be 100% sold (47bu of a 47bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Oct 23rd at 35.5c). At Current 30.5c be 80+% sold.  NEW CROP RECOMMENDATIONS COMING IN MARCH

$$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU – 100% SOLD – Continue to take for $7.24+ to be 100% sold (78bu of a 78bu crop). Benchmark is 100% sold (Since Nov 13th at $7.24). At Current $7.44 be 100% sold.  $$Eth/Fd.WhtMPU(NewCrop) – Target $6.95 Aug delivery on 10% to be 20% sold (10bu of a 50bu crop). Benchmark is 10% sold. At Current $6.45 be 10+% sold.

$$DurumMPU – Target $8.40 Feb delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 85% sold (35bu of a 46 bu crop). Benchmark is 75% sold. At Current $7.70 #2 be 50+% sold. Wheat chart is dreadful and Durum potential is limited by the potential for acres and production to be a little higher than needed going into next year.  Durum could end up being the only oversupplied crop in calendar 2014 though a lot of variables in play prior to that.  Looking to move up sales at any bid with an 8-handle little while but with Canola breaking uptrend.  $$DurumMPU(NewCrop) – Take $7.47 Sep delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 10% sold (4bu of a 37bu crop). Benchmark is now 10% sold. At Current $7.47 #2 be 10+% sold.

$$HardRedSpringMPU – Take $7.51#2 on 15% to be 55% sold (23bu of a 42bu crop). Benchmark is now 55% sold.  At Current $7.51 #2 be 55+% sold.  Minneapolis wheat chart is dreadful having broken through support yet again and on a relativley Bullish series of reports and persistant dryness in the US.  This is simply a market that right now, does not want to go higher..  $$HardRedSpringMPU(NewCrop) – Target $7.85 Sep delivery for a #2 on 10% to be 10% sold (3bu of a 34bu crop). Benchmark is 0% sold. At Current $7.54 #2 be 5+% sold.