Click here for this week’s J-MAS Seeding Progress Report.
Charts compare the last two years of J-MAS customer seeding progress by crop in South Central – Southwest Saskatchewan.
Raw data at bottom of page compares 2014 progress to 2012 as 2013 was a two-week late start.
Here is the Deferred “Real” Pricing page. Starting this week, Old Crop and New Crop are merged onto one file.
Our Deferred “Real” Pricing Report tracks the deferred carry cost of holding your grain against the spot price to help deduce the most attractive delivery windows. Deferred delivery costs are why our J-MAS sales averages often appear lower than your actual contracts and cashed-up prices as these costs are “hidden” and you pay/incur them through other means such as Opportunity and Infrastructure Costs as well as the many risks associated with Storage.
Click here for this week’s New Crop Durum Sale.
Otherwise customers should all be or have received this as a text already.
Lower Open than previous close – check
High Close than previous open – check
Made a new low first – check
Any concerns – I’d rather seen a key reversal on a “no news” day than on a Bullish news day, but it can still work. Volume was good.
Look for a challenge of 475 if not even 490 on the July which is now our high volume Future. Could spell $10 local bids. At 80% sold, worth getting a little greedy here but note that we did receive rain this week in what were our driest areas of the prairies. A little shine off an otherwise Bullish weather case.
Charts courtesy of www.commoditycharts.com
Bullish – Canola (especially yield at 31.8bu) for an estimated 4 million fewer tonnes. Barley.
Mildly Bearish – Lentil (but will largely if not all be a Red increase), Durum (up slightly ahead of expectation), Peas (the one surprise to our numbers ahead of the report coming in below 4 million but still potential upside acres due to fertility issues). Beans (26% increase over last year but more a Bullish Canola print than a Bearish Bean one).
Bearish – Flax (an obvious increase the market somehow had been guessing wrong coming in at 1.7 vs 1.3 estimates. 1.5 was in play in January already when premium to canola was only $2.25 not $3.50.)
Click here for this week’s J-MAS Seeding Progress Report.
Charts compare the last two years of J-MAS customer seeding progress by crop in South Central – Southwest Saskatchewan.
Raw data at bottom of page compares 2014 progress to 2012 as 2013 was a two-week late start.
Click here for this week’s J-MAS Sales Recommendation Report.
Two new “Old Crop” Recommendations this week – No “New Crop” recommendations.
StatsCan seeding intentions are out tomorrow. We feel comfortable enough with our sales to date that even if there is some type of earth shattering print we are in good shape and don’t believe this survey will be all that accurate in terms of where acres shake out anyhow – but we will certainly trade the numbers if they provide some short-term opportunities.
Here again is the J-MAS Merchandising Course link on the Agritalent Website – we are Grow Forward II eligible up to 75% of costs. http://agritalent.ca/programs/crop-merchandising-course
Here are the Old Crop and New Crop Deferred “Real” Pricing pages.
Our Deferred “Real” Pricing Report tracks the deferred carry cost of holding your grain against the spot price to help deduce the most attractive delivery windows. Deferred delivery costs are why our J-MAS sales averages often appear lower than your actual contracts and cashed-up prices as these costs are “hidden” and you pay/incur them through other means such as Opportunity and Infrastructure Costs as well as the many risks associated with Storage.
Click here for this week’s J-MAS Sales Recommendation Report.
No new Recommendations this week.
Here is the full report as we try to rework some areas of it. Note that Canola is the only page with some minor tweeks to date (we will try and get it perfect before switching Durum and Lentil to the new format) and Canola is also the only updated Crop page. The Old and New Crop recommendations are updated and current through until Tuesday next week.
Here again is the J-MAS Merchandising Course link on the Agritalent Website – we are Grow Forward II eligible up to 75% of costs. http://agritalent.ca/programs/crop-merchandising-course
