Corn 95.9 (mildly Bearish) Beans 73.9 (Bullish) Wheat 55.91 (Mildly Bullish) Durum 2.22 (Neutral)
Stocks Bullish too, but market priced much of this in.
Will be a Bullish open then we watch – may be that market continues its path higher. Or it keys on fact Corn acres will only get higher and we close poorly.
$603.30 on the May gives us a spot $13.40 bid into Assiniboia. $556.00 on the November gives us an Aug-Sep 15th $12.09 bid into Assiniboia for New Crop.
We are 17 hours away from the 1st major report of the 2012/13 Marketing campaign with USDA Prospective Planting report out tomorrow at 6:30 pre-market. We are also just 26 days away from our own StatsCan Seeding Intentions of our Principal Field Crops.
The first report though is coming exactly as Canola hits a 3 year high resistance level and – until today – has been looking primed to take it out. This report can be what punches the Bulls through that level into mid-teen territory, or it can feed the Bears and we get a solid double top entrenched firmly in place. It behooves you all to consider your own risk tolerance and opinion on the market and to be positioned in your sales today – ahead of the report – to match that risk tolerance and that market opinion. You have 2 hours.
J-MAS New Crop Canola sales recommendations are ahead of the curve a little at 11 bushels or 40% sold (verse many at 30%) with an $11.81 sales average and 73% of “the Move” captured so far.
It can be seen clearly on a Weekly chart that Canola is very near Long-Term Resistance. Last year, when we ran to this level, our opinion was clear in that we were not yet ready to move into the bubble portion of the 2008 rally as stocks were still ample and last year’s crop still had a chance to be massive. Now though, with tighter stocks and persistent weather risks, the odds are much nearer to 50/50 as we approach that same level again and now have a clearly marked line in the sand at $620 to either break through and signal a test of the all time highs or to fail at and leave us range bound for a few more seasons and at the mercy of the weather.
Click on the chart itself for a larger version with notes on where exactly the resistance levels are and to perhaps see more clearly what you think the risk/reward will be on your opinion.
The J-MAS opinion on risk/reward of this report is clear – Canola will float all boats – and we are maximum Canola sold for this time of year and at a healthy price; but we remain undersold Peas, Durum, Flax and Lentils on the potential for an upward movement further in Canola, or a catchup period once Canola does indeed finds it’s top and we will then add to sales on those crops – and that can easily be right here where we are today. We’ll know more tomorrow.
Canola has done a splendid job of trading on its own Fundamentals with only limited help needed from a Soybean rally. With today’s close off the highs and a big report for Beans tomorrow that may already be priced in on the Bullish side, we will do what we always do on Report day – watch the close.
Who? – Anyone from a J-MAS customer operation, any local Ag industry folk who would like to attend, … and we are toying with the idea of opening it to any invited guest of a J-MAS customer, but we’ll wait on that for now until we see what customer feedback is (see form below).
What? A J-MAS sponsored Supper leading into a 1 to 2 hour Marketing Meeting which will include RotationRater Questions and Answers, followed by a J-MAS sponsored social.
When? Monday, April 2nd 2012, 6:00pm.
Where? Plan A will be J-MAS World Headquarters in Mossbank (if we have under 15 people). Plan B – will be the new shop on the Jolly farm near Mossbank.
Why? A plethora of reason:
1. April 3rd would normally be our regularly scheduled Marketing Meeting night – and this meeting likely marks the end of the meeting season until fall. 2. Early April is still timely enough to influence any remaining rotation issues that may be market-based and the end of “Acre Battle” market rallying is near. 3. The RotatioRater is a blunt instrument and our recommendations very forthright -bordering on nasty some might say – this is an opportunity for a group to attack the guy who attacked their rotations. A great opportunity to call BS on the J-MAS RotationRater methods, assumptions or concept in general. 4. J-MAS goes international with a quick 4 day holiday to Vegas the next day to prime for the coming Agronomy campaign and the evening provides a good opportunity to get any other questions out and answered before departure. 5. A good chance to respond-in-kind to the 1st Annual April Fool’s day joke that will have been masterfully played the day before. 6. An announcement of the likely winners of the 1st Annual J-MAS and Industry sponsored NHL Hockey Draft – as there will be a few games left in the season on that date. 7. ‘Tis simply a great time to prime-up for busy seeding and growing season ahead.Please respond/reply if your likely to attend via text, email, call or the form below, only the J-MAS administrator will see responses:
#1Canola: Apr 11($13.61) Jul 3($13.73) Sep 23($12.23) Jan 22($12.35)
#2Pea: Apr $8.71 Aug $7.63
#1Flax: Apr $14.00 Oct $12.41
#2GrLentil: Apr 21.5c Sep 23.0c
#FdWheat: Aug $5.20
#2AD: Sep $6.87
#2HRS: Sep $6.69
Part 3 of the 2012 RotationRater lays out each operation’s rotation and grades it based on the RotationRater system described (in great detail) over the last two posts. There will be a brief Part 4 as I had entry issues converting the spreadsheet to the webpage, so there is little to no commentary below. By Tuesday, there will be some notes on Acreage comparisons to last year and a few more notes on how the Penalties were calculated and why and how the Score was weighted.
The Net Return data from Component #1 is re-printed here and it is followed by each J-MAS client’s rotation (anonymously) and Graded based on a weighted scoring system.
Rotation Rater Marketing #3 – Final Net Return per Acre and ROI
| pre-Modified | J-MAS RR | J-MAS RR | |||
| Net Return | Modifier | Net Return | J-MAS RR | ||
| per Acre | Total | per Acre | ROI | ||
| Durum | $46.08 | $16.92 | $63.00 | 30.4% | |
| Sp. Wheat | $32.12 | $7.66 | $39.78 | 19.3% | |
| W. Wheat | $67.13 | $11.66 | $78.79 | 39.0% | |
| Malt Barley | $76.51 | -$14.56 | $61.95 | 29.4% | |
| Feed Barley | $49.60 | $8.71 | $58.31 | 30.7% | |
| Yellow Pea | $49.45 | $12.64 | $62.09 | 30.6% | |
| Green Pea | $57.14 | $0.34 | $57.48 | 28.0% | |
| Lg. Gr. Lentil | $74.08 | -$10.71 | $63.37 | 24.0% | |
| Md. Gr. Lentil | $71.53 | -$8.45 | $63.08 | 23.9% | |
| Red Lentil | $34.80 | $3.54 | $38.34 | 14.7% | |
| K. Chickpea | $214.76 | -$85.89 | $128.87 | 32.0% | |
| Canola | $91.98 | $18.22 | $110.20 | 40.0% | |
| Flax | $67.09 | $9.91 | $77.00 | 36.7% | |
| Mustard | $74.92 | -$4.24 | $70.68 | 32.4% |
xx
Durum 13%, W.Wheat 20%, Yellow Pea 8%, K.Chickpea 25%, Canola 34%
Cereal = 33%, Pulse = 33%, Oilseed = 34%
Net Return per Acre = $98.60 Rotation Cost = $277.55 ROI =35.8%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 24%, W.Wheat 8%, K.Chickpea 33%, Canola 35%
Cereal = 32%, Pulse = 33%, Oilseed = 35%
Net Return per Acre = $102.53 Rotation Cost = $294.51 ROI =35.1%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: –4% (Chickpea >25%) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 20%, W.Wheat 16%, LG.Lentil 16%, K.Chickpea 20%, Canola 29%
Cereal = 36%, Pulse = 36%, Oilseed = 34%
Net Return per Acre = $92.31 Rotation Cost = $273.69 ROI =33.9%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 42%, K.Chickpea 17%, Canola 42%
Cereal = 42%, Pulse = 17%, Oilseed = 42%
Net Return per Acre = $92.20 Rotation Cost = $267.83 ROI =34.7%
Agronomic Penalties: -2% (Any Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: -2% (Less than 4 Crops)
xx
Durum 39%, LG.Lentil 18%, K.Chickpea 10%, Canola 24%
Cereal = 39%, Pulse = 28%, Oilseed = 24%
Net Return per Acre = $86.38 Rotation Cost = $269.53 ROI =31.8%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 31%, LG.Lentil 30%, K.Chickpea 10%, Canola 29%
Cereal = 31%, Pulse = 40%, Oilseed = 29%
Net Return per Acre = $83.30 Rotation Cost = $263.49 ROI =31.4%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 48%, LG.Lentil 12%, K.Chickpea 19%, Canola 20%
Cereal = 48%, Pulse = 31%, Oilseed = 20%
Net Return per Acre = $85.28 Rotation Cost = $265.22 ROI =31.9%
Agronomic Penalties: -4% (Any Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 32%, Fd.Barley 7%, Y.Pea 15%, LG.Lentil 10%, K.Chickpea 4%, Canola 31%
Cereal = 39%, Pulse = 29%, Oilseed = 31%
Net Return per Acre = $79.94 Rotation Cost = $240.50 ROI =32.8%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 42%, Y.Pea 5%, LG.Lentil 22%, K.Chickpea 4%, Canola 26%
Cereal = 42%, Pulse = 31%, Oilseed = 26%
Net Return per Acre = $78.02 Rotation Cost = $244.99 ROI =31.6%
Agronomic Penalties: -1% (Any Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 54%, LG.Lentil 25%, K.Chickpea 11%, Canola 11%
Cereal = 54%, Pulse = 36%, Oilseed = 11%
Net Return per Acre = $75.03 Rotation Cost = $248.88 ROI =30.0%
Agronomic Penalties: -7% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -7% (Class >50% & <20%) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 18%, Sp.Wheat 13%, Fd.Barley 5%, Y.Pea 14%, LG.Lentil 16%, K.Chickpea 6%, Canola 29%
Cereal = 36%, Pulse = 36%, Oilseed = 29%
Net Return per Acre = $77.18 Rotation Cost = $245.59 ROI =30.9%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 1% (>6 Crops) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 37%, Y.Pea 21%, LG.Lentil 13%, Canola 28%
Cereal = 37%, Pulse = 34%, Oilseed = 28%
Net Return per Acre = $76.11 Rotation Cost = $232.9 ROI =32.3%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 29%, Sp.Wheat 15%, Y.Pea 7%, LG.Lentil 14%, K.Chickpea 12%, Canola 15%, Flax 7%
Cereal = 44%, Pulse = 33%, Oilseed = 22%
Net Return per Acre = $73.45 Rotation Cost = $247.74 ROI =29.3%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: -1% (>6 Crops) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 44%, W.Wheat 9%, LG.Lentil 24%, Canola 24%
Cereal = 53%, Pulse = 24%, Oilseed = 24%
Net Return per Acre = $75.56 Rotation Cost = $236.04 ROI =31.9%
Agronomic Penalties: -2% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -1% (Class >50%) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 47%, LG.Lentil 24%, Canola 29%
Cereal = 47%, Pulse = 24%, Oilseed = 29%
Net Return per Acre = $76.97 Rotation Cost = $240.41 ROI = 31.8%
Agronomic Penalties: -4% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 25%, Sp.Wheat 11%, Y.Pea 24%, LG.Lentil 7%, Canola 15%, Flax 18%
Cereal = 36%, Pulse = 31%, Oilseed = 33%
Net Return per Acre = $69.80 Rotation Cost = $220.50 ROI = 31.4%
Agronomic Penalties: 0% Rotation Penalties: 0% Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 52%, LG.Lentil 15%, Canola 33%
Cereal = 52%, Pulse = 15%, Oilseed = 33%
Net Return per Acre = $78.79 Rotation Cost = $238.11 ROI =32.7%
Agronomic Penalties: -6% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -4% (Class >50% & <20%) Marketing Penalties: –2% (<4 Crops)
xx
Durum 54%, LG.Lentil 25%, K.Chickpea 11%, Canola 11%
Cereal = 54%, Pulse = 36%, Oilseed = 11%
Net Return per Acre = $75.03 Rotation Cost = $248.88 ROI =30.0%
Agronomic Penalties: -7% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -7% (Class >50% & <20%) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Durum 46%, Fd.Barley 10%, LG.Lentil 28%, K.Chickpea 4%, Canola 11%
Cereal = 56%, Pulse = 32%, Oilseed = 11%
Net Return per Acre = $70.71 Rotation Cost = $237.24 ROI = 29.8%
Agronomic Penalties: -3% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -7% (Class >50% & <20%) Marketing Penalties: 0%
xx
Operation #19 – Weighted Score = 36.9% F
Durum 44%, Y.Pea 56%
Cereal = 44%, Pulse = 56%, Oilseed = 0%
Net Return per Acre = $79.85 Rotation Cost = $234.29 ROI =34.41%
Agronomic Penalties: -2% (Crop >40%) Rotation Penalties: -13% (Class >50% & 20%) Marketing Penalties: -4% (<4 Crops)