The Rotation Rater has many moving parts and a lot of math that can get a little dry and overwhelming so it will be delivered in 3 parts over the next three days.
The 1st component is the Return on Investment calculations for each Cropping Choice in our area and it will be out tomorrow night. It starts with the typical “Expected Revenue minus Costs of Production” found in any marketing spreadsheet or marketing plan but is then overlaid with 7 modifiers that take every aspect of the growing and marketing season of each crop into account.
They are: Current Market View, Future Market Risk vs Reward, Grade Risk, Cash-Flow & Storage Value, Fertility Rebate, Misc Agronomy Factors & Extreme weather Risk & Rewards. In the end what may have originally looked more profitable with simple Revenue vs Cost of Production math comes out very differently after all factors have been considered. It’s still theoretical, but it’s now much less theoretical.
The 2nd component is a breakdown of the Costs of Production and Modifiers and the Assumptions used to build each one and it will be out Saturday night. The Rotation Rater spreadsheet has nearly 200 columns of data and over 5000 cells of math, so it’s imperative that everyone knows something about the Assumptions that math is based upon.
The 3rd component is the Operation by Operation analysis and Rotation Grade and it will be out on Sunday night. It will be anonymous as usual and will be delivered last because otherwise, this would be all that anyone would likely see.
If you haven’t sent your most recent Rotation Plan or your Yield Expectations against a 40 bushel Durum crop – as per this morning’s texts, now would be a great time to do so. Just text them to me.