#1Canola: Apr 11($14.00) Jul 6($14.02) Sep 24($12.81) Jan 22($12.93)
#2Pea: Apr $8.45 Aug $7.73
#1Flax: Apr $14.50 Oct $13.06
#2GrLentil: Apr 21.5c Sep 23.0c
#FdWheat: Aug $5.20
#2AD: Sep $7.25
#2HRS: Sep $6.96
Market anticipated that “ending” stocks would be down given the “current” stocks report out March 30th, which had rallied the market into this report.
But USDA didn’t drop ending stocks at all in Corn (calling 800 pipeline) and Beans hardly at all assuming the market will ration demand by year end.
This is some circular logic on their part as it takes a low ending number print to raise prices enough to ration demand at the level they are assuming.
So in long term, if market believes today’s report, then ultimately Bullish because prices will flatten here and less rationing will occur and we go into next year with sub-pipeline levels of Corn and maybe even Beans.
Luckily the market won’t fully believe this report. Watch the open, but trade the close.