May 6th – Seeding Progress is 30% of Total J-MAS acres (34% including W.Wheat)
Report in general is mildly Bullish based on almost all crops on the lower end of estimates so as a total, there are fewer tonnes than the average but nothing overtly Bullish in the report other than being another report that won’t derail Canola. Lentil number probably the most Bearish as Demand simply not kicking in during a period that was a 21-22c bid for #2 the entire period.
All Wheat – Neutral – but on the low end of expectations.
Durum – Bearish – just a hair over the highest expectation – need to start seeing some bullish stock data given the likely acreage and the good rains W.Praires are getting – 1 month ago Durum country was dry and the potential was for fewer acres than expected. Now the opposite.
Canola – Mildly Bullish – as just a hair above the lowest expectation. With acres flooding again in the east, Canola likely tight into 2013/14.
Barley – Neutral – but on the lower end of expectations.
Lentils – Bearish – not way out of line on expectations but the Demand side is obviously a problem when we drop acres 15% and stocks are 4% higher year over year. We are now predicting flat acreage for the year ahead and this is an area that is getting needed rains – though there are some seeding delays.
Peas – Neutral – still tight but not as low as could have been giving surprise low in Dec 31 stocks report.
Flax – Neutral/Bullish – tightening up as movement into China now that Canada only shop in town.
Price Action on Canola is decent as Canola flat against a Bearish 5 day trend in Commodities with Beans and Corn down today. The tight Canola situation in stocks and acres will support but the Headwinds from Outsides (especially Oil – down 7% in 3 days) and a “Risk Off” trade can still mean the high is in for the year. Price Action after the Greek and French elections over the rest of this week will be our “tell” on where the Outsides are going.