#1Canola:   Jun $13.57(6)        Sep $12.43(24)    Jan $12.65(19)

#2Pea:        Jun $7.37                 Aug $7.68

#1Flax:        Jun $12.87               Oct $13.18

#2GrLentil:  Jun 21.5c                 Sep 22.0c

#FdWheat:                                  Aug $5.50

#2AD:                                          Sep $6.85           Dec $6.97

#2HRS:                                        Sep $6.66

The following is a re-cap of J-MAS Posts, Updates & Events and will be a new Friday feature (and may turn into a Market ReCap this fall as we get through the growing season).

               Week of June 4th                                                                               Volume 1.01

NEW POSTS:

– June 5th:   Local Best Bids

– June 5th:   Marketing Plan Updates & Sales Recommendations to June 11th

– June 6th:   CanolaWatch – Bullish Pennant Update

– June 8th:  Fertility/WeatherWatch – Last-Ditch Top-Dress Opportunity

– June 11th: Farm Progress Show & BASF Plot Tour/Event

PAGE UPDATES:

June 4th: <What – “The Move”> updated – found under the <ABOUT> heading

June 11th: <Rainfall Awareness Page> updated.

PLANNED POSTS & PAGE UPDATES:

June 12th Post – Local Best Bids

June 12th Post – Marketing Plan Updates & Sales Recommendations to June 18th

June 13th Post – Lentil “Class Action”

June 15th Post – The J-MAS Week that J-WAS

As-It-Happens Page Update – Agronomy – Insect Counts

The J-MAS staff has tentative plans to visit the B.A.S.F. plots near Regina the morning of Wed, June 20th on the way to the Farm Progress Show.  We would like to take as many producers as would like to come.

We will of course take any opportunity with a group of farmers to work through a quick Marketing/Agronomy round-up to answer any and all questions asked.  Lunch will be wherever the group decides.

Please get back to us as soon as possible if you’re interested.  We also have access to a limited number of invitations to B.A.S.F.’s evening social, so get back to us fairly quickly if interested in those as well – priority does go to Pulse (and especially Clearfield-type) producers.

With a good rain coming this weekend, we’ve a last ditch Top-Dress opportunity.

Most crops are beyond a staging to see a major yield response as Yield Potential has been set already in those plants. But reaching this Yield Potential may still be influenced if you’ve experienced Nutrient Leaching due to excessive rainfall since seeding those early crops.

Later crops have better potential to increase Yield Potential, but you must consider the chance we delay maturity by attempting those extra bushels (ie, a May 28th seeded crop probably doesn’t have enough growing season to hit 55 bushels).

Also consider your Rotation and the fact weather may change. If we try to add 5-10 bushels and don’t get the timely rainfall needed to capture those bushel, we may leave 20lbs of extra N on a Pulse crop that doesn’t want or need it next year (Canola before Durum is a good candidate for Top Dressing moreso than Durum before Lentil – plus at 90c/lb Nitrogen, more $12 Canola bushels makes more sense/cents than more $7 Durum bushels).

If you’ve had an acute Leaching issue and already used a Foliar Feed product to kickstart the crop, you may still need to throw a few more pounds of actual N/S to ensure the roots tap into something to relieve the stress as the foliar feed product wears off.

Call/Text/Comment if you have any questions or would like a specific recommendation for your area.

This is just a quick note for anyone sold less than 100% Old Crop, 40% New Crop, or just feeling Undersold in general.

Canola is up today on some Macro stability (temporarily) and continued dryness in key Grain areas in the US.  Look at the chart and you will see the Pennant pattern formed after our large move higher – meaning the bias is to break out of the pennant to the upside, but there is so much uncertainty and Fundamental “what-if’s, that it could go either way.  It can probably be argued easily enough that it’s actually a Bearish Pennant in the Shorter Term.

With today’s close at $561 ($12.18) sitting right at the focal point of the pennant, we would have to call this price Fair Value for anyone looking to make a Catch-up Sale, or wanting to be sold more aggressively than our own 40% Recommendation at this level.

On a breakout, nearest Resistance is around $585 ($12.72) and likeliest Support is at $5.35 ($11.59), so there is a wide range that Canola might trade in on a breach, and whichever way it breaks, the normal volatility associated with these Pennant breaches will almost certainly test that downside or upside.

We value a breach to the downside as being 55% and thus slightly more likely but are holding to our 40% Sales position because there is still plenty of time for more Bullish events to play out before the marketing campaign is over. But in the Short and probably Medium Terms, this Breakout will be pivotal, just as it was at $530 when one broke out and gave us $2.50 a bushel higher prices in just 8 weeks.

Click on the chart below if you’re up for a slightly more complicated view and a way to play this from a purely Technical standpoint.

It’s relatively self-explanatory, but call or text with questions or specific Recommendations for your operation.

#1Canola:   Jun $13.58(6)        Sep $12.15(24)    Jan $12.38(19)

#2Pea:        Jun $7.78                 Aug $7.89

#1Flax:        Jun $12.87               Oct $13.18

#2GrLentil:  Jun 21.5c                 Sep 22.0c

#FdWheat:                                  Aug $5.50

#2AD:                                          Sep $6.95           Dec $7.07

#2HRS:                                        Sep $6.90