Thoughts after Chuck Penner presentation.
Lots of positives in flax right now as Canadian big yield was more than offset by lower acres, problems in US and Khazakstan and the reemergence of EU demand and China emergence as a not so price sensitive buyer. There is room for 35% more acres but talk of 50% is on the line and Bean Meal supply will ramp up as SA crop comes off. Flax growers should look at this crop but hobby guys should probably steer clear.
Much more on all these crop show ‘winds’ coming in Rotation Rater in February.
J-MAS thoughts after listening to Terry Whiteside – Whiteside Associates.
Duopolies exist in both Canada and the US and they actually commands better market power than monopolies as monopolies can be challenged on their rates via government intervention, but a duopoly can’t, and obviously collusion can come into play. The same rail problems exist I the US S in Canada as our railroads are the equivalent to a single lane highway with very few passing lanes. In 100 years this has never been fixed.
There is a tremendous threat ahead (aside from Oil present already) with the possibility of Coal being transported through Oregon through two terminals which may move 110 million annual tonnes of coal. The entire Corn, Bean and Wheat crop exported through Oregon is 36 million tonnes (don’t quote this as was a point passed over quickly in the presentation).
The key factor to get farmers a voice in these debates is to get the rail and governments to recognize the farmer as the bearer of freight costs and not the elevators as then the farmers will have a voice.
I have a lot more notes on this so visit the office for a talk on it sometime.
Our thoughts after hearing Glen Hodgeson this morning and Garry Hnatowich and Marlene Boersch yesterday.
Global wheat demand is stagnant compared to Oilseed growth and our many many global competitors have freight advantages over us into Africa. There are far fewer competitor for Oilseeds and that market is growing. We have a commanding freight advantage over the US and South America and Manitoba for that matter.
Our Freight out of Vancouver into China is only 17-18 days to while US is 34 and Brazil is 40.
With less acres needed for wheat and 20-21 million Canola acres becoming a maximum. We will need to see 5-10 million Bean acres over time.
Remember – it took our farms a solid 5 years to get good at growing Canola. It will take that with Beans too. I don’t like yield potential enough yet to recommend more than 5% of rotations now but we will be able to ramp that up sooner than you think given the breeding programs in effect.
So time to be setting yourself up for a future where nearly 50% and maybe more of our rotation in South Saskatchewan will be an Oilseed.
Sent from my J-MAS iPad