Remember to Click here for this week’s detailed J-MAS Technical Report.
Market Notes – Canola broke chart support on the March contract yesterday and followed through today with a $5/mt drop to $416. Beans actually had a great price action day and the gap further widened and is going into ridiculous territory – thanks to our inability to move grain in this country. Durum still showing spunk, grinding higher again this week – it had shown the very largest “Transportation” hangover of most grains we handle so always had the best chance of arbitrage taking effect. Lentil steady in price and therefore Technicals but Fundamentally looking stronger on the Demand side. With Pulses looking like the “Transportation” effect winners, the Supply side will be up and could negate what has been a stellar Lentil set-up to date for calendar 2014.
Report Highlights (see full report for more)
Canola – $8.71 is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as a 63% chance of being hit. We rank $9.12 at 45% and $10.02 at 30% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at $8.26 spot pricing, there is incremental value in holding out for $8.71 but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would be above 60% sold.
Durum – $5.40 is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as an 85% chance of being hit. We rank $5.95 at 51% and $6.65 at 37% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at $5.19 spot pricing, there is little value in holding out for $5.40 but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would be above 65% sold. Looking at $5.19 spot pricing, there is moderate value in holding out for $5.95 but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would be above 75% sold.
Gr. Lentil – 19.5c is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as a 67% chance of being hit. We rank 22.5c at 44% and 24.5c at 33% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at 18.0c spot pricing, there is solid value in holding out for 19.5c but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would not be below 25% sold.