As per previous notes we believe production estimates are beginning to overshoot to the downside and peak pricing may be coming in the next days or weeks. We are ramping up sales accordingly.
The trend is your friend right now and if you have the discipline to wait for the highs to come in and then sell the first trend break, that is a perfect play but a difficult strategy to enact. We continue to promote scale up rally selling with goals to be near 40-50% sold going into harvest.
If you are uncomfortable doing so or believe we are missing something, please call to discuss. We believe a number of producers are holding out of the market on light crops prospects and this has helped with the solid price increases over the last 2 weeks. Once buyers have additional coverage and soften their buying stance, production estimates start to increase or harvest hits, these producers may be tripping over each other to sell at the same time for cashflow. Have seen it many times. Try to avoid by intimating some positions now. You don’t have to go crazy. You don’t have to follow us directly but don’t get caught watching prices go up and then watching them go back down.
Sales Recommended this week: Canola and Durum. The former on what we perceive to be a stronger than perceived Canola and Bean crop with only the softening dollar as an upside catalyst. And the latter because a $3 per bushel increase needs rewarded and we believe yields as well could be better than people think and the U.S. Crop looks great.
Canola – Take $11.25 (521F-25B) Sep Delivery on 10% to be 35% sold. *$11.25 is a roughly 24% profit on a 32 bushel crop.
Current Sep bid is $11.25 (a roughly 24% ROI).
– $9.95 Nov Bean close at 76.7c exchange and a $75/mt Canola premium does lend itself to 551 Nov futures ($11.94@25B).
Durum – Take $10.30 #2(13.0) Sep Delivery on 15% to be 25% sold. *$10.30 is a roughly 44% profit on a 38 bushel crop.
Current Sep bid is $10.30
(a roughly 44% ROI).
LG Lentil – Target 37.5c
#2 Sep Delivery on 10% to be 50% sold.
*37.5c is about 100% profit on a 24 bushel crop.
Current Sep bid is 35.0c
(a roughly 89% ROI).
*Discount MG – 0.6c
*Discount SG – 2.0c
Red Lentil – Hold 35.0c
Sep Delivery at 50% sold – max sales can make until much closer to harvest. Current Sep bid is 35.0c.
K.Chickpea – Target 34.0c (8.75mm Oct Delivery) on 15% to be 15% sold.
Current Oct bid is NB. **Pre-Selling Chickpea is tricky but a small sale on the books puts you at front of the line and with buyers attention at harvest. Hugely important.
Y.Pea – Target $9.80 #2 Aug Delivery on 10% to be 50% sold.
Current Aug bid is $9.00.
Flax – Target $13.35 Oct Delivery on 10% to be 50% sold.
Current Oct bid is $12.66.
Eth.Wheat – Target $6.00 Aug Delivery on 10% to be 40% sold. Current Aug bid is $5.33.
*call me to discuss. We have a buyer interested.
HRS – Target $6.25 #2HRS Sep Delivery on 10% to be 50% sold. Current Sep bid is $5.89.
Call or Text on: Bean, Barley, Mustard, or Green Pea.