We now wait for price action to tell the tale. Mildly Bearish, but trade already discounting the S.American numbers as typical slow reaction to weather. Outisides will dominate more than this report will. I remain wary that rains in Argentian will now be the focus.
Reports
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$$CanolaWatch – a mildly Bullish pennant formation is coming to a breakout point perfectly in line with Friday’s StatsCan. Will be interesting and a market-moving report as industry has them pegged to bump up ’10/’11 yields/production again. I believe StatsCan has been increasing Old Crop production number more on the high “Delivery Rate to Date” than on actual Survey Data.
To me, the high Delivery Rate is more a function of high harvest price and 2008 type fear than their formula that tells them it’s due to an underestimated crop size – but I must respect that I may be wrong and them right. Choose a side on that distinction ahead of Friday because with a wedge shape pattern going into it, it is likely to be a Short Term catalyst that breaks us one way or the other into a more Medium term trend and if Bearish, it probably depresses prices longer than you can hold Old Crop.
If you find these Texts too long for texting, let me know and I’ll set up a private Blog and will link a Text to it in the future (need smart phone). Emails take us out of “real-time” info.
