Late seeding was in the cards at survey time too, so while there will be some jockeying as the late start confirmed over the last 3 weeks, we can fall back more or less to our regular StatsCan Seeding Intentions playbook.
For the actual StatsCan report, click here.
For the Full J-MAS Playbook, customers can click here (or follow the same link below)
Cereal Acres (million acres / 2012 / 2011 / 13-12 % change)
Spring Wheat (19.4/16.9/15.7/+14%)
Durum Wheat (5.1/4.7/4.0/+9%)
Oilseed Acres A(million acres / 2012 / 2011 / 13-12 % change)
Pulse Acres (million acres / 2012 / 2011 / 13-12 % change)
Field Pea (3.4/3.3/2.4/+3%)
All Lentil (2.1/2.5/2.6/-18%)
Two Questions – Do you farmers lie on these surveys? Yep.
Have they been lying for 20 years? Yep.
Ergo, this is not StatsCan’s first dance at the rodeo. (always mix your metaphors when your trying to make a point)
We therefore play this how we have always played it – knowing there are crops with intentions somewhat elevated or downplayed. Have you own opinion (or see ours here). Price action will tell us what the market thinks of the numbers then we will fine tune our opinion against the weather events playing out now and over the next 14 weeks.
Whether StatsCan misses by 2-3% is irrelevant as summer weather will move yields and thus production by 10-20% in the month of July alone so note the Benchmark start and then move on – same as every year. Follow the link for our opinions on the key crops as per survey result, how we feel the acres will eventually shake out, and what the market and weather have the potential to do going forward. Customers can get this breakdown here.
This Seeding Intentions report will ultimately be the jumping point for our new weekly Supply & Demand feature starting next Friday.