Remember to Click here for this week’s detailed J-MAS Technical Report.
Market Notes – Canola still clinging to a bottoming formation but had poor price action today. We still like a Fib38 retrace to 450 Mar futures but it got a little less likely this week. Durum starting to show some spunk, could be grinding higher – it is showing the very largest “Transportation” hangover of most grains we handle so has the best chance of arbitrage taking effect. Lentil anecdotally higher again this week but in no hurry to move it seems. We are very near the lows of the year, especially after factoring carry cost – which we do.
Report Highlights (see full report for more)
Canola – $9.03 is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as a 68% chance to be hit. We rank $9.46 at 41% and $10.02 at 32% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at $8.49 spot pricing, there is only incremental value in holding out for $9.03 but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would be above 60% sold.
Durum – $5.40 is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as a 71% chance to be hit. We rank $6.00 at 44% and $6.70 at 33% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at $5.02 spot pricing, there is only incremental value in holding out for $5.40 but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would be above 70% sold.
Gr. Lentil – 19.5c is nearest strong resistance and we rate that as a 66% chance to be hit. We rank 22.0c at 45% and 25.0 at 32% – from a purely technical standpoint. Looking at 18.0c spot pricing, there is sold value in holding out for 19.5c but you must be comfortable with your sales position – which we would not be below 25% sold.
