Lower Open than previous close – check
High Close than previous open – check
Made a new low first – check
Any concerns – I’d rather seen a key reversal on a “no news” day than on a Bullish news day, but it can still work. Volume was good.
Look for a challenge of 475 if not even 490 on the July which is now our high volume Future. Could spell $10 local bids. At 80% sold, worth getting a little greedy here but note that we did receive rain this week in what were our driest areas of the prairies. A little shine off an otherwise Bullish weather case.
Charts courtesy of www.commoditycharts.com
Bullish – Canola (especially yield at 31.8bu) for an estimated 4 million fewer tonnes. Barley.
Mildly Bearish – Lentil (but will largely if not all be a Red increase), Durum (up slightly ahead of expectation), Peas (the one surprise to our numbers ahead of the report coming in below 4 million but still potential upside acres due to fertility issues). Beans (26% increase over last year but more a Bullish Canola print than a Bearish Bean one).
Bearish – Flax (an obvious increase the market somehow had been guessing wrong coming in at 1.7 vs 1.3 estimates. 1.5 was in play in January already when premium to canola was only $2.25 not $3.50.)