Bullish – Canola (especially yield at 31.8bu) for an estimated 4 million fewer tonnes. Barley.
Mildly Bearish – Lentil (but will largely if not all be a Red increase), Durum (up slightly ahead of expectation), Peas (the one surprise to our numbers ahead of the report coming in below 4 million but still potential upside acres due to fertility issues). Beans (26% increase over last year but more a Bullish Canola print than a Bearish Bean one).
Bearish – Flax (an obvious increase the market somehow had been guessing wrong coming in at 1.7 vs 1.3 estimates. 1.5 was in play in January already when premium to canola was only $2.25 not $3.50.)
