Pre-Report estimates appear relatively in-line with J-MAS expectations, and overall farmers are likely to do what needs done this year: add more Canola, Peas and Chickpeas, capitulate by seeding less Lentils, and come in somewhere more neutral on Durum and Flax.
We can argue the degree to which each occurs ahead and after the report comes out but ultimately only Canola seems perfectly priced and there remains potential for upside in Peas, Durum and Flax and eventually Lentils if your not concerned with summer and harvest bids.
Canola may be perfectly priced but it is therefore the most at risk of Outside market deterioration and bumper crop potential.
Therefore J-MAS is promoting and/or reiterating the follow catch-up/benchmark positions on New Crop ahead of tomorrow morning’s report:
Canola – 40% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 55%, if Bullish be 30% sold.
Large Green Lentil – 10% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Small Green Lentil – 30% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 45%, if Bullish be 20% sold.
Red Lentil – 0% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 20%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Flax – 0% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Chickpea – 15% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 30%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Ethanol/Feed Wheat – 15% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 35%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Durum Wheat – 10% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold.
Spring Wheat – 20% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 35%, if Bullish be 10% sold.
J-MAS does not expect an important report as Canola is due to show what would normally be an extremely large increase but this year it’s already priced in. The market may even shrug off a 22 million print. With Canola gulping up the Prairie acre, there aren’t many crops with big downside potential off this report.
Good weather and Outside pressure may not be so kind, and so there is indeed risk, but it should be seen in Canola first.
With acres so tight, expect these Acreage reports to lose their preeminence while Stocks and Crop Score and Weather reports to find it.