Report came in relatively in-line with J-MAS expectations – other than 300,000 Durum acres and 200,000 Lentil acres that may yet find their way into Canola by the June survey. Overall farmers made the big leap into Canola that was expected since flooded acres are drying up. We are probably showing 500,000 to 1 million acres less than what we will see as a final 2012 Canola print as this survey is 1 month old, and Canola up significantly since, while competing crops flat.
Here is the new Post-Report J-MAS sales range to highlight how our opinion changed from “Pre” to “Post” Report. For more crop by crop analysis on today’s report go here, or right to the horse’s mouth here. J-MAS Targets and actual Sales Positions will be out Wednesday afternoon.
Canola – If Bearish be 50%, if Bullish be 20% sold (was 55% – 30%).
Large Green Lentil – If Bearish be 30%, if Bullish be 0% sold (was 25% – 0%).
Small Green Lentil – If Bearish be 55%, if Bullish be 30% sold (was 45% – 20%).
Red Lentil – If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold (was 20% – 0%).
Flax – If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold (was 25% – 0%).
Chickpea – If Bearish be 25%, if Bullish be 0% sold (was 30% – 0%).
Ethanol/Feed Wheat – If Bearish be 45%, if Bullish be 10% sold (was 35% – 0%).
Durum Wheat – If Bearish be 35%, if Bullish be 0% sold (was 25% – 0%).
Spring Wheat – 20% sold at current bids. If Bearish be 35%, if Bullish be 10% sold.
Good weather and Outside pressure can trump all Bullish expectations easily, while stocks are tight enough that Weather and further reductions to nearly harvestable crops can just as easily trump Bearish ones. Know your opinion on the market and have an appropriate sales position to match that opinion. Have your head in this market, not your heart, though we do remain in a marketing stage where some patience can be rewarded.